Agriculture is poised for an AI-powered, sustainability-driven revolution
The agriculture industry is facing a few major challenges:
1) population growth is driving a 35–50% increase in demand for food by 2050
2) climate change and soil degradation (in over 1/3 of soil) are threatening the consistency of crop yields and driving up costs associated with fertilizer and water
3) climate concerns have increased pressure on the industry to reduce its emissions, which currently make up 10% of global warming gasses
To accomplish this seemingly impossible combination of hurdles, farmers are turning to Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to help them farm more efficiently and sustainably.
Within the decade, this is what a day in modern farming could look like…
(Monitored irrigation)
The corners of John’s mouth turned up as he tugged his wrench one last time. The pipe fitting screeched and rotated a few more degrees before coming to a satisfying, snug halt. Problem solved. With the cost of water in California higher than ever, he was thankful his system caught the leaky pipe so quickly.
(Smart cattle collars)
John’s son came jogging over with a little extra bounce in his step. “Dad, things are looking up with the cattle. We lost that one smaller calf last night, but the other one and the cow look like they’ll make a full recovery.”
Thank God. Brucellosis could decimate a herd. A few days ago John received a warning that a few of his cattle were showing signs of infection — elevated heart rate, slower movement, etc. Out of precaution he called for a quarantine of the suspected animals and all those they had been in close contact with. If it wasn’t for their smart collars, he could have had a horrible outbreak on his hands.
(Smart greenhouses)
“More good news, the strawberry yields are looking even better than last year”. Strawberries were a tough crop to grow, but if done right they could be very profitable. His new smart greenhouse was a risky investment, but it seems to be paying off. By allowing him to accurately track soil moisture, light, and fertilizer down to the individual plant, his yields had been skyrocketing.
(Smart tractors)
Winding his way through his fields, John gazed out at a few smart tractors crawling over the slight incline of his northeast plot. Those things had been a great investment too, saving him thousands on insecticide and herbicide over the past few seasons. Cameras attached to the bottom of the rig identified crops and weeds in real time and accurately applied the right dose of material to the appropriate plant.
(Efficient fertilizing)
Back in his office, John eased back into his chair and flipped open his laptop. He’s met with two notifications. One is an alert that the weather forecast shifted. The system has already parsed the latest satellite data and recommended spreading fertilizer on a few specific lots Thursday morning. Normally, John would fertilize nearly all his land before a modest rain, but he’s learned to lean on the system to limit his fertilizer consumption. After verifying the satellite data, he approves the automatically generated fertilizing schedule.
(Supplemental income from carbon capture)
The second notification is a reminder that 30% of his land is due for another shipment of carbon capturing basalt powder in a few months. The system already drafted an email to his supplier to request the material. Not wanting to miss out on supplemental revenue from these carbon credits, John reviewed the email draft, made a few tweaks, and hit “send”.
The best part about this shift to AI-powered sustainable farming is that it will have benefits for farmers, consumers, and the planet:
For farmers:
AI will increase farmers’ revenue. Machine learning algorithms will compile sensor and satellite data to make recommendations at the acre or even plant level. Across vertical farms, greenhouses, and open fields, these algorithms will develop the ideal “recipe” for plant growth over a few seasons.
Technology can also drive significant cost savings. Smart tractors (expected to grow at 22.5% CAGR from now until 2028) will administer pesticide and anti-weed solutions efficiently, minimizing the use of these materials while ensuring the health of crops. AI will look at satellite data and tell farmers exactly which crops need more fertilizer, and more importantly, which crops don’t. All these measures will save thousands of dollars for the modern farmer.
Lastly, AI will help reduce risk. By in-taking sensor data from water lines and wearables on cattle, technology will alert farmers when things have gone awry much faster than a human could, saving acres of crop from dehydration or hundreds of animals from diseases and other health risks.
For consumers:
Vertical farming, enabled by robotics and AI, will allow for products to be grown closer to home. This means that those fruits on your counter and vegetables in your fridge spent less time being flown, trained, and trucked around the planet before you get your hands on them. Ask any chef and they’ll tell you fresher ingredients equal better tasting food.
AI will help maximize yields from every plant, helping to decrease cost to the end consumer. Similarly, the agriculture work force will be augmented with AI and robotic systems, which will both improve their quality of work and increase their efficiency (again leading to lower costs for the consumer).
Since the mid 20th century, we’ve been smothering our crops in various herbicides and pesticides. Both have come under scrutiny today for their harmful effects on our bodies when we inevitably consume them through our food. Smart spraying systems will minimize the use of these chemicals by only applying them to the plants (or weeds) that need them.
For the planet:
AI will help farmers optimize their irrigation systems and alert them when they need repairs. This will place less on our lakes and reservoirs, which we’ve already seen become stressed by population growth and climate instability.
Today, fertilizer is cheap so it makes sense for farmers to spread it frequently and thoroughly to ensure their production is high enough to support their families. Most of that fertilizer is created by burning methane, releasing carbon dioxide, and resulting in the nitrates (primarily ammonia) craved by our crops. AI fed with satellite and sensor data will tell farmers exactly where and how much fertilizer to spread. Using less fertilizer will help slow down this burn while we find viable alternatives. On top of reducing carbon emissions, this efficiency means less fertilizer trickling down into our rivers and lakes, which can cause toxic algae blooms.
Remember those improved yields from AI-powered growth formulas? That’s good for the planet too. The more food we produce per acre, the less acres we’ll need to feed our society. This means less deforestation required to meet the growing demand for food.
Finally, AI will provide recommendations to farmers of the various tactics they can use, such as cover crops and basalt powder, that will both improve their yields and create carbon sinks simultaneously. By selling carbon credits, farmers can monetize the carbon capturing power of their land.
It’s important to note that there are some challenges holding back the implementation of some of these technologies.
The agriculture industry is simply not accustom to new technologies like these. There is little practical experience with new technologies and occasionally there’s reluctance to try new things. Farming is sensitive and very cost focused, so some of these investments are simply too risky for some farmers (especially smaller ones).
There are also some privacy and security concerns. Food is such a primal part of our survival that it will be difficult to trust machines that can break down or be hacked into. Cybersecurity will have to be a focus as these AI systems are built out to mitigate this risk.
Despite these challenges, we’ll likely see early adopters in the form of large farms that can afford the risks and upfront investments associated with these technologies. As the price comes down and other farmers are able to observe the benefits of these solutions, their widespread adaption will soon follow.
Our generation has seen technology revolutionize everything from retail to finance to manufacturing. Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
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